New traders chase a Tinggi win rate. Experienced traders chase expectancy. Understanding the difference changes how you trade.

Risiko:reward in one line

If you risk 20 pips to make 60, your risk:reward is 1:3 — one winner covers three losers.

Expectancy

Expectancy = (Win% × average win) − (Loss% × average loss). At 1:3 R:R and a 40% win rate: (0.40 × 3) − (0.60 × 1) = +0.6R per trade. Positive, even though you lose most trades.

The Tinggi-win-rate trap

A 90% win rate with tiny wins and occasional huge losses can be net negative. Win rate alone is meaningless without risk:reward.