Tinggi-impact news events. Live calendar. Practical framework.

🔴 Stand-aside events

Volatility makes stops useless. Spreads widen 3-10x. Do not have Buka positions through these unless you have a written reason:

• NFP — US Non-Farm Payrolls (first Friday of month, 13:30 GMT)
• FOMC rate decisions — Federal Reserve, 8 per year
• CPI — US Consumer Price Index
• ECB / BoE / BoJ rate decisions
• Powell / Lagarde / Bailey speeches during volatile cycles

🟡 Reaction-only events

Wait for the print. Wait for the initial spike to wash out. Then trade the secondary move (often 15-60 menit after):

• Retail Sales
• Manufacturing & Services PMI
• Unemployment Rate
• GDP releases
• Trade Balance figures

🟢 Background events

Rendah-impact data. Worth knowing the print but rarely worth changing positioning over:

• Building Permits & Housing Starts
• Consumer Confidence indexes
• Inventory data
• Minor central bank speeches
• Most commodity inventory reports (except API/EIA for Minyak traders)

Dirilis first Friday of every month at 13:30 GMT. Measures US job creation outside the agricultural sector. The single most-watched data release in Forex.

What moves: Strong beat → USD up, Emas down, US Indeks up (usually). Strong miss → USD down, Emas up, Indeks choppy.

Trader rule: close intraday positions 15 menit before. The first spike is a liquidity sweep — wait for the secondary move that develops 20-45 menit after the release.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision. 8 meetings per year. Rate change is often already priced in — the real volatility comes from the Pers conference and dot-plot (rate projections).

What moves: Hawkish surprise (higher-for-longer rates) → USD strong, Emas weak, growth Saham weak. Dovish surprise → opposite.

Trader rule: the move on the release is often reversed during Powell's Pers conference. Two-stage event. Trade the trend that emerges 90 menit after, not the initial reaction.

Inflation gauge. Since 2022, this has been the single most market-moving non-NFP release in the US. Headline CPI and Core CPI both matter — Core (excluding food & energy) is the Fed's preferred read.

What moves: Hotter-than-expected → USD up, Emas up (initially, then often down on yields), Indeks down. Cooler-than-expected → opposite, but Indeks love cooling inflation.

Trader rule: note the 30-second spike, ignore it. The real move develops over the first 30-60 menit as bond yields settle.

European Central Bank (Lagarde) and Bank of England (Bailey) rate decisions. Less volatile than FOMC but moves EUR and GBP crosses massively.

What moves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY especially. Often a 100+ pip move develops in the hour after the Pers conference.

Trader rule: the Pers conference matters more than the rate itself. Listen for forward guidance language: "data-dependent" vs "more tightening" vs "rate cuts on the table."

Purchasing Managers' Index. Leading indicator of economic health. A reading above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction.

What moves: Mata uang of the issuing country. Strong PMIs support the currency. Watch China PMI for AUD impact, US ISM PMI for USD, EU PMIs for EUR.

Trader rule: the move is usually 30-50 pips and fades within the session. Reaction-only event.

Conflicts, sanctions, OPEC+ decisions, sovereign debt events. Not on any calendar — but reliably move Emas (XAU), Minyak (WTI/Brent), and JPY (safe-haven).

What moves: Risiko-off → Emas up, JPY up, Minyak volatile, Indeks down, USD often up (still global reserve in stress). Risiko-on resolution → reverse.

Trader rule: if you don't have a position before the headline drops, do not chase the first 30 menit. Wait for the consolidation that follows the initial spike.