The 4 things that actually move Emas
1. Real yields
Emas pays no interest. Kapan real yields (10Y Treasury minus inflation expectations) rise, Emas gets relatively more expensive to hold — Emas falls. Kapan real yields fall negative, Emas rallies.
2. USD strength
Emas is priced in USD globally. A weaker dollar makes Emas cheaper for non-USD buyers, increasing demand. Watch DXY (dollar index) inversely against Emas.
3. Geopolitical risk
Wars, sanctions, election risk — when uncertainty rises, Emas catches a bid as a hedge. Sharp spike events (Russia 2022, Israel 2023, Iran 2024) all produced multi-week rallies.
4. Central bank flows
Since 2022, central banks (China, Russia, India, Turkey) have been net buyers of Emas to diversify reserves away from USD. Quarterly WGC reports show the pace.
Trading Emas smartly
Emas spreads vary wildly by broker — some quote 30c, some 80c. ShaFX has a dedicated XAUUSD calculator (/tools/xauusd-calculator) and broker comparison filtered for Emas-friendly accounts.